Analysis: Chips In 2006

In three years, when the entire universe of PC computing -- desktop, mobile, server -- is running on highly efficient dual-core, quad-core and eight-core CPU platforms, we'll all look back on 2006 as the year the new world of processors began.

Both Intel and AMD released dual-core desktop processors in 2005, but consumers are just now beginning to upgrade into the realm of increased hyper-tasking efficiency.

The transition hasn't been entirely smooth -- particularly for Intel, whose Pentium D series of dual-core processors were the target of frequent snipes from techno-critics disappointed by the limitations inherent to processors' architecture.

In contrast, AMD's X2 series of dual-core CPUs impressed critics with highly improved real-world speed increases, winning numerous head-to-head showdowns against Pentium D 800 CPUs.

Intel hopes to reverse this trend in 2006. The chip-making giant has been unusually vocal about its aggressive plans to roll out several new CPU lines and an entirely new fabricating process that could result in increased economic and power efficiencies as well as faster processors. Connect the dots between these new CPUs, the company's high level of activity around rebranding its decade-old "Intel Inside" motto, the marketing push around the new Viiv platform (more on that later), and the pending release of a new mobile processor for Apple computers, it's clear that the company is betting big on the next 12 months.

It's also clear that despite copious speculation predicting otherwise, Intel will be focusing sharply on the desktop and the mainstream-oriented living room markets in coming years.

The perpetual David to Intel's Goliath, AMD is playing its plans for 2006 close to the vest, despite news reports that AMD-powered desktops outsold Intel-powered ones during several periods in 2005. The company has released very few details regarding its plans for the new year, but that didn't deter us from digging up some interesting information regarding a new CPU socket and several new processors in existing lines.

Read on for details about both companies' plans for the coming year.
A New Fabrication Process For Intel
Beyond specific new processors, the big news for Intel in 2006 is the chipmaker's migration to a 65 nanometer (nm) CPU fabrication process from its current 90nm process. (The term 65nm refers to the width of the smallest circuit wires on the semiconductor. For comparison's sake, a typical human hair is 80,000nm in diameter.)

In addition to providing increased financial efficiencies, moving to 65nm fabrication will allow a larger number of transistors on a single chip, which will provide a stronger foundation for innovation on dual- and multi-core platforms.Moving to 65nm will give Intel a tremendous short-term (and possibly long-term) advantage over AMD, which lacks the capacity to shift to 65nm in 2006. Of course, the company must capitalize on these increased efficiencies with powerful new processors.

Based on information Intel has publicly released, it appears that the plan is to stay with current-generation CPU architectures for the first half of 2006, and to unleash some impressive-sounding next-gen technology later in the second half of the year.

Current Generation First: Cedar Mill And Presler
The first processors to roll off this new fabrication process will be current-gen Pentium 4s code-named "Cedar Mill." Based on Intel's current NetBurst architecture, these are single-core CPUs that will be released in early 2006. Intel has declined to release clock speeds, model numbers, or prices, but it's a safe bet that Cedar Mill processors will be deployed in all of Intel's single-core series of processors, and as such, they will have 512kB, 1MB, or 2MB of L2 cache.

Also in the first half of 2006, Intel will use these same 65nm Cedar Mill cores in a new dual-core line of processors, code-named "Presler." These new chips will be released under the Pentium D moniker, but will placed into a brand-new 900 series under Intel's naming scheme. An Extreme Edition (XE) dual-core version, which will be named the 955XE and aimed at high-end gamers and power users, will also be released, again with support for Hyper-Threading, which will allow it to show up as four processors in Windows. Also new is a lightning-fast 1066 front side bus.

This group of CPUs will replace the original Pentium D 800 series, but it appears that the dual-die downside to the 800 series will also be present in Presler processors: the 900 series CPU cores will exist on two separate dies. This means that each CPU will be unable to communicate or share status or cache information without first going through the front side bus.

Thankfully, this inefficiency will change in the second half of the year.
The Big Shift
Sometime around late summer, Intel will begin to discuss, demonstrate, and roll out one of the most important new processors in the history of the company. Based on a 65nm fabricating process, the "Intel Next-Generation Microarchitecture" should boast increased power efficiency, decreased temperatures, and increased processing power via more tightly integrated CPU cores.

This future architecture is based entirely on Intel's next-generation mobile processor development, code-named "Merom," which is being developed with both mobile (read "low power consumption") and dual- or multi-core features in mind.Scheduled for release during the second half of 2006, Intel's goal for Merom is to combine the Pentium 4 architecture with the increased processing power and thermal efficiencies of the Pentium M. The result will be a number of new mobile CPUs, including several Merom-based dual-core releases in the second half of 2006.

It's no surprise, then, to hear that the Merom-based architecture will be the foundation of all future Intel processors -- desktop, mobile, and enterprise. (Currently, Intel uses Pentium 4 and Pentium D NetBurst architectures for desktop/enterprise, and Pentium M for notebooks.) One of the key distinguishing characteristics of Merom-based desktop CPUs is that Intel is removing some of the power constraints that exist in the mobile version of the Merom architecture to ratchet up performance.

It's highly likely that in 2007, we'll even see quad-core processors based on this platform. In fact, online rumors have indicated that Intel already has quad- and eight-core processors in the works, respectively code-named "Kentsfield" and "Yorkfield."

Two New Desktop CPUs
Let's talk specific CPUs. In 2006, you can expect to see two desktop CPUs based on this new architecture. The first, code named "Conroe," will be a Socket 775 processor featuring two cores and a shared 4MB L2 cache. This shared cache is a substantial improvement over Intel's current-generation chips, as is another element of the new design that will allow the separate L1 caches on each core to communicate with and even transfer data with the other.The result will be significantly increased processor performance. That's exciting. Also exciting: the aggressive levels of power management Intel is building into this line.

"Allendale" will come on the heels of Conroe and will also feature two cores but only a 2MB shared L2 cache. A new Intel chipset – i965, code-named "Broadwater" -- will be released alongside Conroe and Allendale.

There has been considerable speculation that the Conroe, Merom, and Woodcrest (the enterprise version) processors will mark the end of the Pentium brand and the beginning of a new brand name, possibly Intel Core.
AMD: Staying The Course
While Intel has been extremely vocal about its future plans, AMD has been surprisingly private. So private, in fact, that we had to dig particularly deep to gather information regarding its upcoming processors and new architectures.

AMD will not be switching to a 65nm fabricating process for its CPUs in 2006. Although the company has announced the development of 65-nanometer manufacturing technology with IBM, it's unlikely that AMD will be able to re-tool its plants to implement the new process with this year's CPU releases. As such, it's probable that the company will not release a new CPU architecture in 2006 either.

It appears that in 2006, this chipmaker will focus on two strategic concepts. First, AMD will integrate new virtualization and security technologies into its existing CPU lines. Second, in an attempt to gain some ground on Intel's dominant Pentium M and upcoming mobile processors, the company will focus much of its efforts on a big push for its Turion 64 mobile line of processors.Details are hard to come by, but these plans will likely include a dual-core mobile CPU in the first half of 2006 and a brand new socket, code-named "Socket S," appearing in the second half of the year.

Fortunately for AMD, its current generation of processors -- including the dual-core X2 line -- tend to outperform Intel at the low, mid-range, and high end of the CPU spectrum. Will Intel's switch to 65nm change these circumstances? Possibly. This should make 2006 an interesting and competitive year.

Code-Name Pacifica

One of AMD's key pushes for 2006 is neither a new processor architecture nor a new fabricating process, but a brand-new virtualization technology code-named Pacifica. Technically, Pacifica debuted at the end of 2005, but it will only begin to appear in new AMD CPU releases -- not including older lines -- fabricated and released in 2006.

Virtualization is a way to run multiple operating systems, or multiple instances of the same operating system, on a single computer. (Intel released its own virtualization technology in 2005.) This technology is a boon for software developers, and will boost security and reduce scaling costs for servers. Virtualization also has benefits for desktop PC users -- imagine running both Windows and Linux applications at the same time.Beyond enabling virtualization, a big component of Pacifica is to reduce the performance hit that virtualization carries with it.
Hello, M2 (Or Whatever)
AMD's biggest news of the year will come in the second half of 2006 when its brand-new socket becomes available. Originally code-named "M2," this 940-pin socket will finally allow Athlon 64-based systems to utilize speedier DDR2 memory and will result in a marked improvement of CPU and system performance. Recent Internet reports have indicated that the new socket will not be released with the "M2" name or the "Socket F" moniker that has also been used, but will be named "Socket AM2."

Whatever its name, shortly after the new socket debuts, AMD will release processors in the Athlon 64 X2, Athlon 64, and Sempron lines for the new socket. In line with the new socket's DDR2 support, each of these new processors will feature onboard DDR2 memory controllers.

But What About The Chips?
Over the course of 2006, AMD will likely release new processors in these four product lines:

Athlon 64 X2: The pride and joy of AMD's CPU arsenal is the dual-core X2 line, and it appears that in early 2006, the company will release an Athlon 64 X2 5000+ clocked at 2.6GHz. Later in the year, we should see the same processor for the new DDR2-enabled M2 socket.

Athlon 64 FX: Not surprisingly, Athlon's high-end performance line will receive at least one and probably two upgrades in 2006. In January, AMD is releasing the Athlon 64 FX-60, a speedy dual-core that will run at 2.6GHz. Like other FX series processors, the CPU will have a 1MB L2 cache. Although AMD isn't talking, we wouldn't be surprised if AMD releases another dual-core FX processor, the FX-61, in the second half of the year.

Athlon 64: Again, AMD has been surprisingly quiet regarding the future of its base line of Athlon 64 processors. With the focus on the X2 line of dual-core processors, single-core Athlon 64s appear to be taking a back seat. However, it appears that AMD will be releasing the 4000+, 3800+, and 3500+ series of processors for its new DDR2-enabled M2 socket in the second half of 2006.

Sempron: In an attempt to capture more of the low-end market, AMD is prepping numerous releases in its "value" Sempron category. In the first half of 2006, we should see the debut of Sempron 3500+, 3600+, and 3700+ CPUs. These new processors will feature 64-bit extensions. In the second half of 2006, AMD will release an M2-based Sempron processor code-named "Manila." This processor will not include Pacifica virtualization capabilities, but it will include a dual-channel DDR2 memory controller -- that's a big deal for a value CPU.
What -- And When -- Should I Buy?
So, you know you're going to spend x dollars on processor upgrades next year. But before you begin buying processors willy-nilly, give these buying considerations some thought.

As you begin to formulate a purchase strategy for 2006, keep this in mind: In general, we prefer AMD processors for gaming and other 3D-oriented applications. However, in other tasks such as application multi-tasking and encoding music and movies, Intel processors work better.

With this said, however, it's always prudent to wait for the performance results for newly released CPUs before you buy. Given the new direction Intel is taking later in the year, this is doubly important in 2006.Intel
Here are three quick purchasing points you should consider for Intel processors:

1. The Pentium D-lemma. Intel's early 2006 release of the new 900 series of Pentium D dual-core processors should result in low prices for 800 series dual-core CPUs. This may present the opportunity to buy high-quality PCs or processors at low prices. The 900 series processors should be faster, but not a great deal faster. Other than the change to a 65nm process, there aren't many differences here.

2. Power users' delight. If you're going to be on the market for a new PC or a new Socket 775 processor in the middle of the year, and price will take a backseat to performance, you should probably wait until the fall or winter and get your hands on a Conroe CPU. This processor should present a marked increase in performance over the current generation of Intel dual-cores, but we won't know until it's released whether it's faster than AMD's Socket M2-based Athlon 64 X2 CPUs.

3. If price is a concern... If you're looking to buy a large number of low- or mid-range PCs or processors, wait until the end of the year, when the new CPUs described above will result in massive price drops for existing Pentiums -- especially if the name changes.

AMD
Keep these points in mind as you map out your AMD technology purchases for 2006:

1. Patience is a virtue.
If you're looking for optimum performance, don't buy anything until the second half of 2006 when Socket M2 -- or whatever it's eventually called -- debuts. The DDR2 support should offer a dramatic performance increase. If you're an Athlon 64 FX devotee, you should cross your fingers and hope that AMD releases an M2-based FX CPU toward the end of the year.

2. For those in a hurry... If you just can't wait to upgrade to a power rig, you should consider buying an FX-60. If you're just looking for some high-end performance to hold you over until the end of the year, consider an FX-59 or FX-57 processor, both of which will experience significant price drops when the FX-60 is released.

3. Sempron-licious. If you're looking for low price points, Sempron is the way to go. Wait until AMD releases the Sempron 3500+, 3600+, or 3700+ (sometime in the first half of 2006) and you'll find a great price-per-performance ratio. (You might also want to consider Intel's low-end dual-core processors, which also offer excellent price-performance ratios.)

4. Still more waiting. If you're bargain hunting, the best time to buy older Athlon 64 or Sempron CPUs will probably be after June. The release of AMD's new Socket M2 should result in substantial price drops for all non-M2 parts.George Jones is a 14-year veteran of technology and gaming journalism. He's been an avid tech-head since the day he first screwed the plastic lid off his Commodore VIC-20.