Analyst: More Vista Delays Would Sell 1 Million More PCs

Microsoft Corp. could help PC vendors sell an additional million machines if it intentionally delayed releasing Windows Vista until July 2007, a Gartner analyst claimed this week.

But that ain't gonna happen.

The already-announced delay of Vista, which is now scheduled for general release in January 2007, won't materially affect the number of PCs sold during 2006 and 2007, said Charles Smulders, a Gartner vice president. Along with two other analysts -- George Shiffler and Mikako Kitagawa -- Smulders recently published a research briefing on Vista's push-back and the impact on PC sales.

"The impact will be relatively minor if Vista ships in January [2006] as Microsoft has announced," said Smulders. "Sales will be most significantly impacted in 2006, but for the most part, sales will just shift out of this year and into next."

Some consumers and small businesses that might have popped for a new PC with Vista pre-installed during the fourth quarter will spend the money on other purchases, Smulders said, but they won't be in the majority."Actually, it might be better [for PC makers] if Microsoft waited until the second quarter of 2007 to release Vista," he said. "That would allow Vista to gain momentum through the educational back-to-school season and the fourth quarter [of 2007]."

Delaying Vista until, say, July, Smulders argued, would also boost PC sales this year. "With Vista further out in the future, sales are less likely to slow down now," Smulders said.

The total sales increase from another delay would be about a million units, the Gartner analysts estimated in their research report, a number Smulders called "a relatively small difference."

According to Gartner's most recent estimates, global PC sales will top 230 million in 2006, so 1 million more machines over a two-year period translates into an increase of about one-fifth of one percent.

And even that up tick in sales is unlikely if Microsoft has anything to say.

"A delay would be beneficial to the PC industry, but Microsoft's fiscal year ends June 30. It wants to book as much [Vista] revenue into fiscal 2006 as it can."I can't see how Microsoft could be convinced to delay," said Smulders.

Not that an unintentional delay isn't possible. In fact, Smulders gave the probability that Vista will be delayed beyond January 2007 "a medium chance."

"It's difficult to know, even for Microsoft, whether Vista will be delayed again. But I certainly think it could be.

"Who knows what will happen? Microsoft's still working on the code."

Three weeks ago, Microsoft announced that it would push back the general availability release date of Vista, the next major Windows upgrade, to January 2007. Businesses that acquire Windows through volume licensing agreements, however, will have access to the new OS in November 2006.At the time, research firms issued conflicting estimates; some, such as IDC, bet that the delay wouldn’t' affect sales, while others, like JupiterResearch, said that the delay would be a pain point for PC sellers, especially those that rely on retail and were looking forward to a banner fourth quarter.

Since then, Microsoft's given no indication that it won't meet its January 2006 release schedule.