Experts Give Sun/Novell Thumbs Down

Attention, Suse Linux customers: "Don't panic!"

It's not a Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy reference, but rather the message urged by Linux experts and analysts today, regarding this week's comments by Jonathan Schwartz, Sun Microsystems Inc.'s (Nasdaq: SUNW) president and COO, that he will likely pursue Suse owner Novell Inc. (Nasdaq: NOVL) as an acquisition target.

Those we interviewed about Schwartz's comments and blog entry concluded there are three possible explanations, in the following order of likeliness: 1) He wants to spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt about Linux-lover IBM Corp. (NYSE: IBM); 2) He sincerely does want Sun to have a good Linux distribution and just couldn't wait to tell everyone; or 3) He enjoys annoying the SEC and, for some reason, wants to drive up the price of acquisition targets.

Sun officials were not available for interviews today. "We have no comment," a Novell spokeswoman said.

It's probably all moot: Chances are, Sun's no more likely to buy Novell than the Red Sox are to shake the Curse of the Bambino."The question you have to ask yourself is, if Sun is serious about Novell, would you go out and talk about it? You're essentially bidding against yourself," says analyst Victor Raisys, of San Francisco's W.R. Hambrecht & Co. "I would view that more as an attempt to stir a little bit of uncertainty into the Linux pot."

Schwartz's claim that Suse needs to be saved from a possible IBM takeover is a non-issue, because an IBM takeover of the Provo, Utah-based Novell is "highly, highly unlikely," Raisys says, noting that such a move would polarize the market, and besides, Novell has strong prospects as a standalone company.

Another analyst, Brent Bracelin of Pacific Crest Securities, also uses the term "highly unlikely" regarding Sun following through on buying Novell. "I think their motivation is to demonstrate to the world that Sun is serious about software," he says. If the Sun/Novell does happen, Bracelin sees a silver lining: "It's easier to cannibalize your own business than to have someone else cannibalize it for you."

From the Suse customer perspective: "A lot of us are a bit worried about the stability of the product," says Philip Carinhas, a Linux consultant and trainer based in Austin, Texas. He says that since Novell only bought Suse last fall, that causes confusion in itself. If Sun really wants a Linux distribution, it could easily do it with a free version, he contends, adding that if that happens, Sun should port as much software as possible and end Solaris.

Novell customers, Carinhas says, should not panic -- or should at least wait and see what happens before panicking. In the end, "I'd be more worried as a Sun customer."Evan Koblentz, Senior Editor, Next-Gen Data Center Forum