Next-Gen DRAM Will Spur Faster Servers, 64-Bit Apps

More than a few users have new computers running 64-bit operating systems that cannot run existing software (e.g., Adobe Flash) because the software has not yet been delivered for the 64-bit architecture. There are also enterprises waiting to run their data center servers in the swifter 64-bit environment that have everything in place except the applications.

Software delivery for 64-bit operating systems has been traveling down a slow but steady route into the corporate and consumer mainstreams. Developments like 4GB DDR3 (double data rate) DRAM with very high densities may soon change that. As faster DRAM comes on board, computing bottlenecks are likely to shift to other areas, like slower-running 32-bit operating systems and the 32-bit applications that are built for them.

"The 32-bit operating systems and 32-bit applications limit speed and also the user experience," says John Lucas, a PR manager for Samsung. Consumers who watch their video games stall understand the problem with 32-bit OSs and applications, he says, and the introduction of 4GB DDR3 DRAM will push OS and application developers to speed up their work on 64-bit operating systems and applications.

"The announcement by Samsung of 4GB DDR3 DRAM comes around the same time that it is announcing a 45-nanometer version of DDR2 DRAM," says Bob Merritt, a founding partner at Convergent Semiconductors, a storage and memory research firm. "What is common to both products is the 45-nanometer process. This tells server manufacturers and others that there is a stable manufacturing process that exists with DDR2 DRAM that will be carried forward to 4GB DDR3 DRAM."

The new chip doubles the density of earlier DRAM chips and can be packaged into modules with a capacity of up to 32 GB. The chips eventually will appear in a variety of products, including use in crowded data centers that are trying to reduce the amount of heat generated by electronics. Enterprise IT managers, consumers, and manufacturers seem ready for a "next generation" of DRAM as they contemplate cloud computing initiatives, which present a picture of virtual Internet resources that provide data center power behind large numbers of mobile and desktop devices in enterprises and with the growth of more resource-intensive consumer mobile devices."To put the development of 4GB DDR3 DRAM in perspective, there is a need in the market for higher-density memory with a small form factor and with reduced power consumption. If you look at the consumer market, this need is being shaped by people who want to be on the go, yet have access to information from anywhere," says Lucas.

Enterprises are also looking for DRAM technology that can deliver high performance with reduced power consumption and fit in "green" data centers. "If we have to translate the 4GB DDR3 DRAM development to the marketplace, 4GB DDR3 DRAM's value is in optimizing bandwidth at higher densities and speeds, and in lowering total cost of ownership by reducing overall power consumption."

DDR3 DRAM's potential impact is likely to be both evolutionary and disruptive. It is evolutionary because DDR technology has been around for many years, and the availability of 4GB DDR3 DRAM is simply a further expansion of DRAM potential that can leverage the capabilities of compatible hardware and software. But there is also a highly disruptive side, because of the highly scalable, low-powered memory that 4GB DDR3 DRAM delivers.

"Beyond a doubt, 4GB DDR3 DRAM is a paradigm shift for computing because it takes us to the next level of memory density," says Merritt. "At the same time, manufacturers and enterprises either do or will recognize that it will take one to two years to begin to see this paradigm shift in action in a production mode. However, there is no question that 4GB DDR3 DRAM will definitely shift the thinking of server manufacturers, because it says that memory companies are ensuring that there will be high-density memory to support the kind of group-level computing that will be shifted to data center servers for concepts like cloud computing."

Samsung's Lucas cites a recent IDC report that predicts that DDR3 DRAM will be a key DRAM technology by 2010. "4GB DDR3 DRAM must still go through the basic evaluation and validation cycles, and then mainstream adoption," he says. "But if it's anything like 2GB DDR3 DRAM, we are expecting about a 33 percent adoption rate of 4GB DDR3 DRAM over the next three to four years. It is simply a matter of the applications catching up by offering versions that run under 64-bit operating systems."Likely application entry points for DDR3 DRAM exploitation are in multimedia, 3D and imaging in industries like healthcare. On the hardware side, there are likely to be more high-performance notebooks and servers, and higher-performance home networking.

"We are seeing a trend toward higher-density memory, which will be needed for cloud computing and consumer applications," says Merritt. "But there are still challenges in reducing lithographies for DRAM as you continue to shrink die sizes and lithography levels. What 45-nanometer DDR2 and 4GB DDR3 DRAM developments tell the industry is that it is now assured of meeting new memory density needs, and of maintaining the historic cost-per-bit reductions in manufacturing costs for at least the next few years."