Report: Tough Times Ahead for SSD Storage

Despite a slew of announcements from vendors such as EMC , Sun, and HDS, solid-state disk (SSD) technology faces a tougher battle than expected displacing traditional hard disk drives (HDD).

This is the message from analyst firm Citigroup, which revised its initial note on SSDs and HDDs that it put out a year ago. Todays research, which comprises both computing and enterprise SSD deployments, paints a much more cautious picture of a much-hyped technology.

”We remain cautious on dramatic SSD encroachment in computing devices through 2009 (excluding notebooks) due to cost, performance, and reliability/durability,” explained Citigroup analyst Craig Ellis, in the note released today. “[But] enterprise storage product development has occurred slightly faster than originally expected.”

The last few months have seen more and more storage vendors jumping on the SSD bandwagon, touting, in particular, much faster speeds for data access.

Despite all the vendor hyperbole and analyst predictions for SSDs, Citigroup warns that that the technology is no high-speed silver bullet.“Third party analysis reveals mixed SSD performance versus HDDs,” wrote Ellis, in today’s note. “SSDs excel in random read and access times (up to 50 percent faster) and in some cases power consumption. Alternatively, SSD write times are up to 40 percent slower.”

The analyst explains that read/write durability for SSDs built with Multi-Layer Cells (MLCs) “remains challenging” and points out that HDD power management and shock tolerance is constantly improving. “Overall, a less decisive tilt toward NAND than many would have expected a year ago.”

Despite the hurdles in the path of SSDs in laptops and desktops, the technology remains a good fit for enterprise storage, according to Citigroup analyst Paul Mansky, co-author of today’s report.

”More recently we have taken greater notice of SSD’s early traction in the opposite end of the market – high end enterprise arrays,” he writes, adding that the disk drive has become the “choke point” in high performance systems. “The impact of the SSD incursion into the enterprise will be concentrated in the high end of the market, where Fibre Channel disk drives have come to dominate.”

The analyst adds that SSDs will make their presence felt in other parts of the data center.”There will also likely be an opportunity for displacement in high-end server-based storage,” he writes, estimating the future size of the SSD market. “Inclusive of both host and server-based storage opportunities, we estimate a plausible 70,000 Tbyte SSD market in 2007, growing to roughly 118,000 Tbytes by 2009.

While enterprise demand for SSDs is undoubtedly growing, the technology will nonetheless represent a drop in the ocean, even by 2009. The total market for external, direct-attached, and server-based storage, including SSDs, will be more than 5,000 Pbytes by 2009, according to Citigroup.

EMC, which was the first mainstream storage vendor to throw its weight behind Flash-memory-based SSDs, recently predicted that Flash will revolutionize the storage industry, offering a greener, high-performance alternative to traditional rotating disk technology.

The vendor’s CEO Joe Tucci also predicted that Flash could achieve price parity with rotating Fibre Channel drives by the end of 2010.

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