Dueling Dual-Cores: 2006 Mobile CPU Forecast

Only a month into 2006 and we've already seen the first dual-core laptop CPU. That's a great sign for the coming year. After all, a pitched battle between Intel and AMD for market share in the booming mobile computing category can only mean powerful processors and affordable prices for consumers.

Intel strongly believes that 2006 will mark a return to the dominant role it played throughout much of the 1990s. The reason for the chip giant's confidence? What it thinks is a sizeable technology advantage and a promising new mobile CPU architecture that will debut later this year.

Rest assured that AMD shares no part of this vision. Despite trailing Intel in the mobile processor market, the company has enjoyed astounding success and made significant competitive inroads in the desktop market.

This surge in popularity can be primarily attributed to AMD's early understanding of the all-important notion of performance-per-watt, which emphasizes fast processor speeds, but only at reasonable power usage levels. But can the underdog chipmaker overcome the marketing juggernaut that is the Centrino platform?

The Dual-Core Battle Goes Mobile
As we enter 2006, it's clear that the mobile processor landscape is on the verge of the same massive shift as the desktop market. This year — finally — the dual-core movement is coming to a laptop near you. Intel's already there and AMD isn't far behind.By the end of 2006, the mobile computing platform will experience dramatic leaps in two seemingly opposing metrics. Processing power will skyrocket, yet battery consumption will simultaneously decrease.

As we move into 2006, the big questions in the mobile processor market are:

Read on for answers.
Intel "Yonah" Makes Its Debut

With one new processor technology already released, and a potentially monumental new CPU architecture coming in the second half of the year, it's clear that Intel is looking for a knockout punch in the mobile category in 2006.

Early in January, Intel fired the first shot in the 2006 mobile processor campaign when it released the first-ever dual-core mobile processor: the Core Duo.

Formerly code-named "Yonah," the Core Duo is a highly efficient 65nm processor. (See the following page for more on the 65nm fabrication process.) One of the key developments of this CPU is the presence of a shared 2MB L2 cache. Named SmartCache, this feature (which the first-generation Pentium D dual-core processors lacked) allows for improved communications between the two CPU cores and faster data processing.

Early online tests comparing the Core Duo to a Pentium M (Intel's previous mobile CPU line) of the same clock speed have indicated performance gains of 30 percent with a simultaneous 15-percent increase in battery life. That's impressive.Perhaps even more impressive is the fact that Apple Computer is using Core Duo processors in its new MacBook Pro laptops. This is a tremendous advantage for Intel because it allows the chipmaker exclusive domain in a massive new market. In fact, demand for Apple's new Core Duo-powered notebooks has been so high that company representatives have warned of possible shortages.

Intel has also released a lower-cost single-core version of this same Yonah CPU architecture known as the Core Solo.

One disadvantage of the Core Duo and Core Solo processors is the absence of 64-bit processing. It's no big deal now, but when Windows Vista debuts later this year, experts expect 64-bit processing to play a more prominent role in system performance.

One other concern is a recent report from Tom's Hardware Guide about a possible Microsoft driver bug sapping up to one hour of battery life off of Core Duo-based systems. Early adopters beware. (Update, 2/23/06: Microsoft has confirmed the existence of the battery-draining bug and announced that it is working on a fix.)

The following Core Duo and Core Solo CPUs are currently or soon-to-be available:

In this naming scheme, the first letter denotes power consumption: "L" indicates a super-low-voltage processor; "T" means higher power consumption. The number indicates relative clock speed and performance, so the T2600 Core Duo is faster than the T2400.

Centrino's New Platform
In tandem with the release of the new Core processors, Intel has also released — actually, specified is a better way to put this — the brand new Centrino Duo mobile platform (known by the code name "Napa" prior to its release). For a laptop to qualify as a Centrino Duo system, three Intel components must be present: the Core Duo processor, Intel's 945 Express chipset, and Intel's 3945ABG wireless chipset for wireless connections.

While the 945 Express was also in last year's Centrino platform, Intel has made a number of changes in the chipset, starting with a faster 667MHz frontside bus, which aids performance, given the presence of a dual-core processor. The 945 Express chipset also allows the support of DDR2-667 memory, over last year's DDR2-533. The chipset also boasts a marked decrease in power consumption.

Exciting as it sounds, the Core Duo processor will take a back seat to a potentially even more powerful processor in the second half of 2006.
What's So Great About Merom?
Intel's most aggressive move in mobile processor technology will come in the second half of 2006 with the company's debut of its Next Generation Micro Architecture (NGMA). Intel believes so strongly in NGMA that the company is basing its entire line of future CPUs — desktop and server included — on this new architecture.

NGMA will debut in the form of "Merom," the code name for Intel's upcoming dual-core mobile processor. Not surprisingly, this CPU will maintain Intel's emphasis on aggressively pushing the performance-per-watt metric. Intel has released numerous technical details explaining Merom's theoretical superiority, such as:

It appears that Merom processors will be compatible with the current Centrino Duo platform. This is a good thing because it will mean an easy upgrade for system resellers. That means smaller price increases for consumers.

Intel has not released specific details regarding Merom clock speeds. The company has also not officially announced what brand name Merom-based processors will be released under. However, given the marketing emphasis around the brand new Core Duo moniker, it's a safe bet that these new CPUs will carry the same name, but with different model numbers.
AMD Turion 64: Year 2

There isn't any way to pretty up the fact that AMD trails Intel by a substantial margin in the laptop market share wars. This doesn't mean that the company's Turion 64 mobile line — launched in 2005 to rave reviews — is inferior to Intel's mobile processors.

In fact, the Turion 64 is quite capable and held its own with Pentium M processors in 2005. However, Intel's earlier entry into the market and the popularity of Intel's Centrino platform has heretofore proved insurmountable.

It's clear that in 2006, AMD will become more aggressive on two fronts in the mobile CPU category: improving the technology and resulting performance in the Turion 64 brand, and continuing the effort to push its CPUs into the systems of major resellers.Deals with Compaq and other major resellers, including rumors swirling around a possible mobile processor deal with stalwart Intel partner Dell, indicate that AMD is making inroads in the all-important latter category. Unfortunately, AMD has been reluctant to divulge specifics regarding its 2006 mobile roadmap. But we were able to scrounge up some early details that could indicate the company's overall direction for the coming year.

Dual-Core Turion
This much we know for sure: AMD will release a dual-core mobile processor sometime during the first half of 2006. Interestingly, the only information our AMD contact would give us is this: "We plan to begin offering dual-core processors specifically designed for thin and light notebooks during the first half of 2006."

Performance-per-watt improvements would be extremely welcome in the lower voltage thin-and-light category, and this interesting statement appears to indicate that AMD considers this mobile subcategory ripe for the picking. Still, it's likely that AMD will also fabricate dual-core Turion 64s for the less sexy but more utilitarian not-so-thin-and-light category.

While AMD declined to comment for this story beyond the above statement, considerable speculation by industry watchers indicates that a new dual-core line of Turion 64 processors will likely feature the following:

We're particularly interested to see what impact the move to DDR2 (which Intel's Core Duos already support) and dual-channel memory will have — particularly in the context of a dual-core environment. While AMD has confirmed the pending arrival of dual-core processors, it has not specified what clock speeds these CPUs will operate at, or whether or not this line will carry the same "X2" designator as its desktop counterpart.

New S1 Socket In Store
One other rampant rumor regarding AMD's 2006 mobile roadmap is that AMD will release a brand new "S1" mobile socket in the second half of 2006. However, details regarding the specific improvements this new socket will provide are unavailable. Based on this information, we expect to see a new Turion dual-core architecture at the very end of 2006 or possibly in 2007.
Making The Right Buying Decision
Okay, so the thought of moving to mobile dual-core has your heart racing and your breath coming faster and faster, right? That's good. We're pretty excited ourselves. There's no doubt that dual-core laptops will provide excellent levels of performance and increased battery life.

But as you begin to plan the purchase of your next laptop (or set of laptops), keep these five considerations in mind.1. Consider Merom. If you pride yourself on buying machines with peak performance, you should wait for Intel to release its Merom-based processors in the second half of 2006. If you buy a Core Duo-based laptop today, you'll probably find yourself disappointed in seven or eight months. In addition to an expected increase in performance, Merom CPUs will add 64-bit extensions, which Windows Vista -- also scheduled for release later this year -- will actually take advantage of.

2. Wait for Turion dual-core. Sure, AMD's dual-core Turion 64 processors lack the sex appeal of Centrino Duo. But how will they perform? It may be worth waiting a few months to find out. With this said, however, we don't expect to see a major performance difference between the two.

3. Wait for thin-and-light? Given AMD's cryptic hints about targeting the thin-and-light category, it might be worth waiting a few months to see what AMD has up its sleeve before buying that ultra-portable three-pound laptop. If (and admittedly this is a big if) AMD is able to innovate a major performance-per-watt breakthrough in this category, you'll be sorry if you recently forked over $2,000 for old technology.

4. Summer and fall will bring lower prices. If you positively, absolutely must have a new laptop today, you won't go wrong with an Intel Core Duo laptop. But keep in mind that when Intel releases its brand-new mobile processor architecture later this year, prices for existing Core Duos should drop.

5. Get low prices now. Because Intel recently released the Core Duo, you can probably find a stellar bargain on an older and still fairly speedy previous-gen Centrino- or Turion 64-based laptop today.

George Jones is a 14-year veteran of technology and gaming journalism. He's been an avid tech-head since the day he first screwed the plastic lid off his Commodore VIC-20.
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