PC Semiconductor Market To Hit Stride In 2004

The worldwide PC semiconductor market is expected to top $66 billion by 2008, driven by economic growth that spurs corporate spending, a market research firm said Monday.

The semiconductor market for desktops and mobile PCs is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.8 percent from 2003 to 2008, rising from $45.4 billion to $66.1 billion, respectively, International Data Corp. said. This year, the market is expected to jump by 18 percent to $53.6 billion.

The PC semiconductor market is expected to hit its stride this year, because of economic growth that has boost corporate spending, IDC analyst Shane Rau said. Both those factors were missing in 2003.

"In 2003, only part of the year did we see clear economic growth, and none of the year did we see significant spending by corporations on IT equipment," Rau said. "In 2004, we expect more significant economic growth and IT spending increases largely reflective of corporate spending."

Earlier this year, IDC upgraded its projections for IT spending growth in 2004 to 7 percent more than 2003. The analyst firm had forecast 5 percent.The semiconductor market is reflective of corporations "coming off the sidelines and buying more PCs," Rau said. "Between 2003 and 2004, we expect an overall 11 percent unit growth in desktop, mobile and specialty servers."

By far, the largest growth is in mobile computers. The number of units shipped this year is expected to be 26 percent more than last year, which was 29 percent higher than 2002.

Currently, 74 percent of PC shipments are desktops, with mobile PCs accounting for the other 26 percent. In 2008, the ratio is expected to be 70-30, Rau said. In terms of semiconductor revenue, the numbers today are 70 percent desktop and 30 percent mobile PCs, shifting to 55 percent desktop and 45 percent mobile by 2008.

The higher market growth of mobile PCs is expected to have a strong impact on sales of microprocessors for communications subsystems, particularly wireless local area networks. The market for those systems is expected to reach $3 billion in 2008 from $1.1 billion last year. That's an overall CAGR of 21.5 percent, while revenues from subsystems for mobile computers are expected to have a CAGR of 30 percent.