Report Shows Three Futures For Telecom

Wireless, Internet and phone networks around the world will generate nearly $1.2 trillion in revenue this year, but the revenue picture could change entirely within five years.

One of the three networks could dominate the others, according to a new market analysis report from Insight Research. The study examines three scenarios for telecommunications revenue and subscriber growth.

The report projects revenue and subscriber growth for three separate scenarios. In the first, all three networks continue evolving along current trajectories. The other two possibilities are that the Internet or wireless networks dominate all others.

Regardless of which networks dominate, communications use will continue to grow and users will expect more flexibility. The use of video and images are likely to show spectacular near-term growth, according to the report. For each scenario, the study analyzes the impact of technology, competition, revenue fluctuations, and asset depreciation and growth.

"The study imagines the future of the telecommunications industry using a premise that everyone has considered," said Insight Research President Robert Rosenberg. "What if he Internet or my wireless provider is the only way I communicate five years from now? What would that mean for the worldwide communications industry? Surprisingly, there are not tectonic shifts in revenue, though subscriber growth and profitability were indeed vastly different."The difference between the most and least lucrative outcomes is about $752 billion of revenue, according to Insight Research.

Low and no-cost communications through wireless or Internet not going to take off, according to Insight, because even with free municipal services, users will pay taxes to build and maintain networks.