Will Competition Position Satellite Communications for a Greater Network Resiliency Role?

Hit with devastating tropical storms, crippling subsea cable cuts, and suspected damage of terrestrial networks by hostile parties in war zones; businesses are looking skyward for a viable alternative to reach remote locations, provide backup, and approach resiliency.

Is this the year of real competition for Low Earth Orbit satellite communication services? The FCC chair hopes so, SpaceX does not, but others such as Intelsat-SES, OneWeb, Globalstar, and Amazon would be a way to catch up with Elon Musk’s company and its worldwide fleet of low Earth orbit (LEO) satellites.

2024 has seen mergers, partnerships, and new entities that promise to reshape the satellite services sector, which extends beyond internet access and includes nascent Network-to-Network (NTN) services. Driving competition in LEO, medium Earth orbit (MEO), and geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) market segments could provide a much-needed B plan when events like Hurricane Helene disrupt daily life.

A Satellite Communications Recap

Earlier this year, the FCC launched the Space Bureau, which was designed to cut huge backlogs of applications for satellite approvals. At that time, roughly 4,000 LEOs were in orbit, with another estimated 20,000-30,000 awaiting review by the FCC.

The new bureau includes an agency dedicated to working with foreign regulators to coordinate international operators. FCC Chair Rosenwarcel wants to create competition to Musk's SpaceX.

Starlink controls roughly two-thirds of all satellites and has put roughly 7,000 satellites in space since 2018. Compare that to just test launches expected in 2025 from Amazon's Project Kuiper venture announced in 2019.

Rosenworcel said at a conference that Starlink has "almost two-thirds of the satellites that are in space right now and has a very high portion of internet traffic,” according to a Reuters report. "Our economy doesn't benefit from monopolies. So, we've got to invite many more space actors and many more companies that can develop constellations and innovations in space."

Benefits of Satellite Communications Competition 101

Competition in most markets has been attributed over the decades to more viable players in a given market sector or vertical industry. The FCC chair repeated them. “Every communications market that has competition is strong, we see lower prices and more innovation, and honestly, space should be no exception."

One analyst predicts Amazon is going to be the next big player in the LEO broadband market, joining OneWeb, Viasat, and Telesat. “I’m not sure the industry needs any more competition beyond those players,” said Jeff Heynen, Vice President, Broadband Access and Home Networking at Dell’Oro Group, a market research and analysis firm. “Obviously, it is a very capital-intensive business model with very high barriers to entry. So realistically, there probably will not be any additional entries.”

Mergers or partnerships between very large players, such as the SES buying Intelsat and Intelsat teaming with Softbank – and the emergence of Amazon – would lend credence to Heynen’s vision. OneWeb has teamed with Eutelsat in a merger of two satellite operators that closed in late September,

Emerging Satellite Communications Services

Activity in satellite services this year goes beyond LEO satellites to include MEO and GEO, as is the case with emerging NTN services.

In recent years, the second space race has already seen the FCC authorize the launch of roughly 10,000 (LEO) satellites for operators looking to deliver everything from Internet access to an emerging set of satellite-to-cellular offerings that provide connectivity to those off the terrestrial wireless network grid, including S.O.S services that help those with emergencies.

Not long after, SES announced plans to acquire longtime satellite service provider Intelsat, which analysts branded as a move to compete with SpaceX since the former lacked LEOs, but Intelsat does not.

In mid-September, tech conglomerate SoftBank and satellite-based communications company Intelsat announced they would create a “ubiquitous network” of “seamless” 5G terrestrial mobile and satellite communications networks.

But what can be done to lessen the barrier to entry for satellite service rollouts, given the cost, time, transportation, etc.? "Cost is a barrier, and this is why Intelsat has been leading in industry standardization around 5G," Gerry Collins, Director of Product Management, Networks at Intelsat. "Industry standards, when widely adopted, bring greater scale and lower costs. This is why Intelsat is driving adoption of 5G NTN standards within the (satellite communications) and telco markets." The deal is set to be completed sometime in 2025.

Need for Satellite Communications Competition Goes Next Level

Last month, FCC Chair Rosenworcel called for competition to Musk’s SpaceX.

Starlink controls roughly two-thirds of all satellites and has put roughly 7,000 satellites in space since 2018. Compare that to just test launches expected in 2025 from Amazon's Project Kuiper venture announced in 2019.

Rosenworcel said at a conference that Starlink has "almost two-thirds of the satellites that are in space right now and has a very high portion of internet traffic," according to a Reuters report. "Our economy doesn't benefit from monopolies. So, we've got to invite many more space actors and many more companies that can develop constellations and innovations in space."

Competition in most markets has been attributed over the decades to more viable players in a given market sector or vertical industry. The FCC chair repeated them. “Every communications market that has competition is strong; we see lower prices and more innovation, and honestly, space should be no exception."

Having more players in a market does not guarantee innovation in the way of new services and capabilities, but much energy and effort have been spent by a cadre of operators, and service providers have paired off to create direct-to-direct device services that pair satellite tech with cellular 5G networks on earth.

The Intelsat-Softbank undertaking promises to drive emerging services. The deal is set to be completed sometime in 2025.

Softbank is an existing Intelsat customer and connects over 2500 Cell Towers across Japan using our cellular Backhaul managed service. The goal of the agreement is to ensure that it is possible for a 5G device to roam between a 5G TN and a 5G NTN. "To achieve this, we will test our respective 5G core networks together to show that using a single subscriber ID and a single account, a device can move from TN to NTN and back again," explained Intelsat's Collins. The industries where this will have the most application will, of course, be automotive, with everything from tractors and diggers down to domestic cars benefitting from the ubiquitous connectivity, he said.

A Final Word: Net Resiliency Needs Satellite Communications

On the power of mergers, acquisitions, launches, and partnerships, 2024 could be looked back on as a landmark year in the evolution of satellite services. Whether those impacted by network and services outages of terrestrial networks look skyward for alternatives to boost resiliency depends on the innovation from and health of this contracting industry.