Survivor's Guide to 2006: Wireless

Wi-Fi Widespread?

The pace of enterprise Wi-Fi adoption will no doubt increase throughout 2006. Many organizations will be moving beyond tactical hotspot deployments to more pervasive and more strategic implementations. As organizations take on this challenge, they'll face a number of hurdles. In some cases, the implementation of next-generation Wi-Fi technology will prompt a re-evaluation of LAN security policies. Although most organizations will view Wi-Fi as an add-on rather than a replacement for Ethernet, there's a trend toward Wi-Fi as the default network option for most users.

Enterprises evaluating Wi-Fi infrastructure offerings in 2006 will find more mature products than were available two or three years ago. Because of new standards as well as commercial improvements made possible by an expanding market, current products are significantly more manageable and more secure than previous offerings, and greater attention has been focused on enhancing ease of implementation. One key strategy relates to the level of integration with existing Ethernet infrastructure. It's no surprise that Cisco Systems, Extreme Networks and Enterasys Networks make a big deal out of the need for tight integration, not only to protect their customer base, but also to pressure those customers to upgrade their Ethernet infrastructures.

Others, including Aruba Networks, Colubris Networks and Trapeze Networks make the case that wireless LANs have unique characteristics that make an overlay solution more efficient and cost-effective. Overlay solutions are viable and, in many cases, the decision will come down to business rather than technical criteria. Do you want to deal with a smaller vendor whose market success is tied to wireless and will therefore be more likely to respond to your needs? Or do you prefer to minimize support complexity by working with a single, established vendor for wired and wireless?

Regardless of which strategy you follow, with respect to both product selection and system design, you must focus not only on the here and now but also on the future. Most organizations will want to plan for two key future needs: support for wireless voice and smooth upgrades to new standards, particularly 802.11n. The new 802.11 physical-layer standard will deliver 10-Mbps throughput and is expected to make headway into enterprise deployments by 2007. Although 802.11n will offer enhanced range, most enterprises will be well advised to plan for dense AP deployments that use all available bandwidth in the 2.4-GHz and 5-GHz bands.

If you haven't done so, implement an enterprise purchasing policy that requires 802.11a/b/g support on all notebook computers. Users who can connect using 802.11a will enjoy excellent performance and free up capacity for users with older 802.11bg network adapters. In addition to employing the design tools built into infrastructure offerings, you may consider using site survey design tools, like those offered by AirMagnet, Ekahau and Wireless Valley Communications. These systems can save considerable time for some organizations.

And as your wireless network expands, make sure you have adequate troubleshooting tools that let you solve user problems, which will be more prevalent than with Ethernet networks. Think about implementing tools at all your support layers. The helpdesk should be able to see network coverage and performance, and the network engineering staff must have physical- and data-link-analysis tools.

Wireless WANs extend wireless data services outside the physical boundaries of conventional enterprises. In general, this is the domain of cellular 3G services, though wireless LAN hotspots and hotzones also are playing an increasingly important role outside the enterprise. Jiwire.com, which tracks Wi-Fi hotspots, now lists almost 83,000 of them in 108 countries. But though those numbers sound impressive, the small cell size of Wi-Fi means you'll often have to travel down the street or across town to find a legitimate Wi-Fi service. That may change if cities like Philadelphia and San Francisco succeed in "unwiring" their communities using Wi-Fi. We're still skeptical about the technical and business viability of delivering citywide wireless LAN services, but 2007 will provide a strong indication of whether it's possible, and these initiatives will provide a shot in the arm to providers of wireless mesh systems, which are a key element of metro Wi-Fi deployments. In the long run, there's no question that public WLAN services will be critical, but we see a future that leverages the best of 3G, Wi-Fi and WiMAX.In the coming year we'll see broader and more affordable 3G services from carriers worldwide. In the U.S., Verizon Wireless and Sprint/Nextel will continue the build-out of their CDMA EV-DO networks, which deliver half-megabit data services that meet all but the most demanding user requirements. Cingular is a little behind on the performance curve, but its new HSDPA (High-Speed Downlink Packet Access) network (part of the GSM family of WWAN protocols) should become available in most large markets during 2006, providing service similar to Verizon and Sprint. T-Mobile hasn't announced 3G deployment plans, but it must or risk losing out on enterprise and consumer business, which will become increasingly reliant on high-speed data services.

Look for all major manufacturers of enterprise notebook computers to embed 3G radios in their systems during 2006. Because the cost of 3G radio modules is still high and there is no single WWAN standard, you'll likely be restricted to certain notebook models. You'll also have to pay a price premium for embedded WWAN, but this development will make it easier for enterprise IT to support WWAN services. Beyond notebook computers, smartphones will continue to proliferate. Microsoft's release of the Windows Mobile 5 platform will be noteworthy, though other platforms like those from Palm, Research in Motion and Symbian will continue to find loyal followers in 2006. Carriers will offer tiered pricing for 3G data services, with smartphone users paying less than notebook users. Although monthly service costs are expected to decrease in 2006, there won't be a free fall. Carriers don't have the system capacity to accommodate widespread 3G data usage.

The Rumble of Fixed Wireless and WiMAX

2006 will be critical for the development of WiMAX, a wireless technology built on the foundation of the IEEE 802.16 family of protocols. 802.16 uses the same logical link control standard as 802.11 and other 802 standards, but unlike 802.11, which uses a contention-based MAC (Media Access Control) protocol, 802.16's MAC is a scheduled MAC, where each node gets a predefined time slice. Aggregate performance is claimed to be up to 70 Mbps, but this varies depending on implementation. Borrowing on the success of Wi-Fi, the companies behind WiMAX, led by Intel, have developed a certification program that should assure users of at least basic multivendor interoperability. That should stimulate significant market competition and lower prices. But don't look for WiMAX to supplant Wi-Fi or 3G, at least for the next several years.

For the enterprise, WiMAX won't have much impact in 2006, except perhaps for multinational organizations that are hindered by the lack of wired broadband data services in developing countries. Providers of first-generation WiMAX offerings will likely find their largest initial business opportunities in these markets, particularly in those where private spectrum is available in the 3.5-GHz band. In the United States, there's some short-term potential for WiMAX in the unlicensed 5-GHz band, but this is, for all practical purposes, a niche market.

There are relatively limited applications for multipoint unlicensed fixed wireless, because 5-GHz WiMAX systems must contend with 802.11a and because 5-GHz frequencies don't work well for mobile wireless systems. Longer term, we can see WiMAX offerings emerging in the 2.5-GHz MMDS (Multipoint Multichannel Distribution Service) market, where Sprint holds most spectrum licenses, as well as in public safety and other bands that become available as the FCC continues its efforts to free up more spectrum for wireless data services.

The real fun in the WiMAX market won't happen until 2007 at the earliest, when mobile WiMAX, based on the 802.16e standard, begins to appear. Mobile WiMAX, when coupled with VoIP, could alter the WWAN landscape, replacing existing cellular phone WWAN systems. However, it's not something that most of us will need to worry about in 2006.

Although WiMAX will get most of the buzz, there's still a ton of ROI left in proprietary fixed wireless offerings, ranging from inexpensive point-to-point Ethernet bridges built around Wi-Fi technology to much higher-performance options based on both RF and optical technologies. These products continue to improve, providing higher performance, lower cost and enhanced reliability. For an organization trying to decide between leased lines and wireless bypass over a distance of up to 30 miles or so, these products are appealing.Applications for mobile wireless data will evolve beyond e-mail and niche vertical applications, but don't look for 2006 to be the breakout year.

> Notebook computers with Wi-Fi, 3G and Bluetooth

Smarter and smarter smartphones

WiMAX

Not

802.11b Wi-FiCDMA 1x and GSM EDGE

Notebook computers without wireless

Voice-only cell phones

Proprietary multipoint fixed wireless -->

Dave Molta is a Network Computing senior technology editor. He is also assistant dean for technology at the School of Information Studies and director of the Center for Emerging Network Technologies at Syracuse University. Write to him at [email protected]. In last year's Survivor's Guide, we predicted several key developments in the wireless industry. For the most part, reality mirrored expectations, with one or two exceptions. We forecasted increased momentum in the wireless-enabled mobile device market--and we weren't disappointed. Newer and vastly improved smartphones, equipped with more power and enhanced ease of use, have appeared. Unfortunately, with that increased power came increased complexity, and enterprise IT pros are still struggling to figure out how to deliver key wireless services, like mobile e-mail, while keeping users, support staff and bean counters happy.

In Wi-Fi, we suggested that new standards for security and QoS would break down barriers to enterprise adoption. The North American enterprise Wi-Fi market has been picking up steam, according to Synergy Research Group, with revenue increasing by 14 percent between the first and second quarters of 2005; but globally the news hasn't been as positive, with declining revenue in Europe, Asia, the Middle East and Asia/Pacific offset somewhat by increasing sales in Latin America. Some of this sluggishness is attributable to declining component costs, which is always good news for technology buyers, but some of it is likely a result of uncertainty about future wireless standards.

We missed the mark in predicting that 2005 would be a breakout year for VoWLAN (voice over IP over WLAN). The anticipated growth in enterprise VoWLAN products didn't happen--this market is still defined as "niche."

Our prediction of broader rollout of 3G wide area wireless services was mostly on target. Verizon and Sprint both added EV-DO (Evolution-Data Optimized) services to their networks. Cingular lagged a bit as it tried to digest its acquisition of AT&T Wireless, but it has begun to offer high-speed data services using GSM/HSDPA (Global System for Mobile Communications/High-Speed Downlink Packet Access) technology. A wide array of smartphone devices was released, some offering support for 2.5G networks and an increasing number equipped with 3G, and notebook computer vendors like Sony and Lenovo began to embed cellular data modems in some products. We also saw some price erosion, with unlimited data plans for EV-DO falling to $60 per month and even more aggressive pricing for smartphone devices. Wireless e-mail is still the driving app for enterprise wide-area wireless, but we're beginning to see expanding rollouts of line-of-business applications, particularly within industries that have highly mobile workforces. Some businesses that would fit the bill include field-service organizations, engineering services firms and any organizations that have large direct sales forces.

Beyond Wi-Fi and 3G, WiMAX got lots of buzz, but the high expectations haven't been realized. We predicted the emergence of the first WiMAX-certified devices in 2005, and that will probably happen early in 2006. However, though WiMAX is likely to have a long, healthy future, today's technology is more tactical than strategic, especially in the North American market, where the demand for fixed wireless is generally limited to rural areas. Still, WiMAX has gained market momentum and it is likely to do so at an increased pace in 2006.0