2003 Survivor's Guide to Mobile and Wireless

Here's the good news. We believe that many senior managers--the ones who sign off on big technology initiatives--will respond favorably to well-conceived mobile and wireless projects thanks to their personal experiences. Your job is to identify the most promising technologies and deploy them at the right time.

Security Concerns

The WLAN market, estimated by Gartner to be a $1.78 billion market worldwide in 2001, continued its torrid growth in 2002 despite a weak economy. But it could have been even hotter were it not for widespread security concerns. In the post-9/11 world, it's no surprise that security concerns are at the root of nearly every new business initiative, and in the mobile and wireless market, it's an ever more serious problem. One reason is that today's generation of security standards represents a sorry state of affairs. It's no surprise that security concerns are cited as the No. 1 obstacle to wireless technology implementations.

A second problem is that the effective wireless security solutions that do exist are complex, for both the users who have to deal with them and the IT professionals who must implement and manage them. Everyone's in search of a silver bullet, and it's nowhere to be found.

-->The prevailing wisdom for enterprise WLAN security is to deploy the same VPN technology that has long been used for secure remote access on wired networks. Although VPN client software is often a pain in the butt for users, most people adapt to it, and some good VPN clients are available. But simple VPNs can be ill-equipped to deal with the roaming and intermittent disconnects typical of wireless connections. Yes, there are VPN variants that address these problems, but they add complexity and cost.

Many people look to 802.1x as the solution to WLAN security. While we expect 802.1x to gain much greater acceptance in the coming year, it doesn't address all the problems. Look for significant progress to be made in 2003 by the IEEE 802.11i committee in charge of revamping security, but don't be shocked if standards aren't here until 2004. Faced with those delays, the Wi-Fi Alliance, formerly WECA, has announced a new set of security standards, dubbed Wi-Fi Protected Access, or WPA, that will be incorporated into its product certification process during 2003. That move will enhance security, but it is best viewed as an interim solution. If you can't wait that long, there are plenty of other solutions to solve WLAN security, but most are proprietary, expensive or both.

Perhaps the greatest challenge you'll face is to select WLAN infrastructure that provides some level of investment protection so you don't need to throw it away next year when new standards emerge. That's an issue that separates enterprise-oriented wireless vendors from low-cost suppliers that target the small office and home office markets. Not all that long ago, there were AM radios and FM radios, and we chose between the two. Today, we take for granted that every radio is dual-band--AM and FM. But with today's wireless data systems, we're back to the days of having to choose.

Sure, we can dream about a single wireless standard to which we can hitch our wagons, but in the real world of wireless, whether it's voice or data, we're forced to deal with multiple radio standards--those available today as well as those that haven't yet been commercialized or even invented. The challenge is to figure out how to get these alternative radio standards to work together seamlessly.

In the WLAN market, the immediate problem relates to incompatibilities between 802.11b, 802.11a and 802.11g, all of which have their champions. For those who aren't infatuated with speed, 11b has the obvious benefits of an extremely low cost, a large installed base and a relatively good range. Advocates of 11a point to a fivefold increase in performance and easier system design because of more channels, with only a modest price increase. And 11g advocates assert that 11g offers the best of both worlds, a claim that is difficult to challenge because no 11g products exist. But they will in 2003, so we'll see for ourselves.In our view, 11g is unlikely to become dominant, though it will play a role. That's because by the end of 2003 you'll be able to purchase commodity WLAN NICs for less than $100 that will support 11b, 11a and 11g, automatically selecting the best system available. And you're also likely to see NICs that combine WLAN radios with 2.5G cellular radios, providing roaming between WLANs and emerging GPRS (General Packet Radio Service) and CDMA (Code-Division Multiple Access) 2000 1XRTT wide area cellular systems. The key technical challenges will rest in facilitating rapid and transparent roaming, maintaining security and dealing with the billing issues where commercial wireless networks are involved.

Embedded Wireless Everywhere?

While most people view wireless networking as a system add-on, a notable trend in 2003 will be toward embedded wireless capabilities, particularly in notebooks and PDAs. Informal estimates suggest that approximately 20 percent of enterprise-oriented notebooks purchased in late 2002 were shipped with embedded 802.11b WLAN capabilities. Look for that number to increase to well over 50 percent in 2003, eventually culminating in wireless availability on all high-end systems. From a manufacturing standpoint, companies reach a point where it costs more to leave wireless out than it does to build it in. By early 2003, notebook manufacturers will be able to include integrated 802.11a/802.11b WLAN support for no more than $25 extra. At that price point, most notebook manufacturers will include it, just like they did with Ethernet.

The PDA market is a little less clear in this regard. You'll certainly be able to purchase an increasing variety of devices with embedded WLAN and Bluetooth support, but the integration challenges are more complex. There are both form-factor and battery issues to deal with, and while we don't expect any breakthroughs in 2003, we'll certainly see some progress. Longer term, we're looking for innovations in both battery design and wireless radio power design, the goal being to meet expectations of users accustomed to being able to use their cell phones for at least a couple of days without recharging the batteries.

You can also expect to see wireless capabilities embedded in many other devices, mobile and otherwise. Telematics solutions will become more pervasive in automobiles, with smarter wireless capabilities providing new and unique mechanisms for enhancing transportation efficiency. Wireless will facilitate hands-free phone communication and vehicles will become capable of communicating on their own, to improve logistics efficiency or to automatically report impending mechanical problems. And everything from home appliances to manufacturing infrastructure systems will gain new wireless capabilities, with advances in technology likely outracing those in applications.

Mobile Devices Mature

While debates continue to rage regarding the ideal mobile computing device, a quick reality check reveals that the stodgy old notebook remains king. Even as we see slimmed-down notebooks that pack a slew of features into a sub-5-pound package, we'd argue that the notebook is more a portable device than a mobile device--a mini desktop you can transport from location to location rather than something that facilitates spontaneous access to information. The vast majority of mobile professionals can't get their work done without a notebook.In 2003, however, we do expect to see a modest increase in the number of people who compute on the go without a notebook, a development made possible by an increasing array of highly functional handheld devices. While these products have significant long-term promise, we don't expect the new "tablet PCs" to make much headway in 2003. Not only are these devices expensive, they are also version 1.0 releases. Some IT professionals will evaluate and perhaps deploy them for niche or pilot applications, but most will wait awhile.

More intriguing are developments in the PDA and smartphone markets. Palm now has a credible enterprise platform that will let it compete with devices running the Pocket PC OS. At the same time, Pocket PC continues to mature, with enhanced performance, embedded wireless capabilities, a broader array of applications and development tools, and prices about half what they were a year ago. In addition, you'll see improved application integration capabilities and significant enhancements to back-end management platforms, from vendors that specialize in mobile device management as well as from more established desktop management vendors looking to broaden their markets. Gartner projects that it will grow from a $135 million market in 2000 to almost $750 million in 2005. Increased volume and competition are likely to make these platforms significantly more affordable, meaning 2003 may be the year when PDAs become EDAs (enterprise digital assistants).

We'll also see significant developments in the smartphone market. Phone manufacturers will add more data capabilities while PDA vendors will add telephony features. Many purists will still insist on choosing the best phone and the best PDA and integrating them via Bluetooth technology, but we think the smarter play is an integrated device. While the need to provide a reasonable screen may force smartphone vendors to maintain a larger footprint, we expect these devices to get thinner in the coming year, making them acceptable even to those who prize portability above all else.

By the end of 2003, all the major cellular phone service providers will have nationwide packet-switching IP data networks. We're not talking multimegabit broadband service, but getting 30 Kbps to 50 Kbps performance while driving down the interstate isn't half bad. At those speeds, you can get some serious work done, and it opens up new opportunities for mobile applications.

Alas, while the news is mostly positive, many questions will need to be answered during the coming year. While we've been pleased with the performance of early GPRS and CDMA2000 1XRTT service offerings, we're concerned that performance will decline once the subscription base goes up. Most carriers have extremely limited per-cell bandwidth available to support both voice and data services, so when overall usage heads north, performance will surely fly south.A cynical perspective is that you don't need to worry about reduced performance because the prices these carriers are charging is sure to keep usage levels to a minimum. Of all the major providers, only Verizon has an unlimited service option which, at $99 per month, may be tough for many business users to justify. Other vendors seem intent on charging by the byte, a strategy almost certain to fail.

Some analysts feel that WLAN hot spots hold more promise because their performance is so much better and their infrastructure costs are lower. There's some truth to both those assertions, but today's hot spots provide very limited coverage, and while a small proportion of mobile professionals may be willing to schedule their client meetings at the local Starbucks to take advantage of high-speed data services, that's not really a model that appeals to the masses (or the caffeine-averse). In short, 2003 could be a bust-out year for hot spots, but for that to happen, coverage needs to be broad enough that you can take the existence of a nearby hot spot for granted, and all the roaming issues need to be adequately addressed. We'll be keeping an eye out--but we're more likely two to three years away from ubiquity.

Breakthrough Technologies

Are breakthrough technologies coming in the wireless space? Absolutely, but it's difficult to predict how long they'll take to make the jump from the research lab to the enterprise. This transition is both a technical issue and a market issue. Even if you could introduce a new WLAN technology that blows the doors off 802.11, it's questionable whether you could easily overcome the market momentum of Wi-Fi. For many vendors looking to increase profitability, it's all about tweaking existing technologies and enhancing capabilities while maintaining backward compatibility.

Despite the negative effects on innovation attributable to market inertia, there are indeed some interesting new wireless technologies worth watching in 2003. Look for smart antenna technology to make a splash, enhancing the range and scalability of both WLANs and cellular data services. You can also look forward to technical improvements that will help overcome the line-of-sight shackles that have dampened enthusiasm for fixed wireless as a last-mile broadband access solution. And UWB (ultra-wideband) technology, with its promise of 100-Mbps-plus performance, may eventually supplant Wi-Fi and Bluetooth for some limited-range applications.

In sports, certain barriers seem almost impossible to break, like throwing a baseball faster than 100 miles per hour or running a 40-yard dash in less than four seconds. You can have the best conditioning program around, but limitations of human physiology get in the way. In the world of wireless, limitations are tied to physics, and while there are plenty of physical laws that limit the potential of wireless communications, we haven't even begun to scratch the surface of most wireless communication technologies. That will make for some interesting possibilities in 2003 and beyond.

Dave Molta is a senior technology editor of Network Computing. He is also an assistant professor in the School of Information Studies at Syracuse University and director of the Center for Emerging Network Technologies. Molta's experience includes 15 years in IT and network management. Write to him at [email protected].ArrayComm: For Arraycomm, it's all about spectral efficiency, using software-controlled antenna arrays to build more scalable networks.Broadcom: Bet on Broadcom to make a splash in the increasingly competitive market for wireless chips.

Cisco: Cisco keeps tweaking a solid WLAN product offering. If it ever gets serious, watch out.

Intel: Intel's been quiet in the wireless space, but its plans for embedded wireless will affect everyone.

Microsoft: It didn't make the list just because it's big. Microsoft's commitment to mobile and wireless is key to market growth.

Navini Networks: Its focus on non-line-of-sight and nomadic broadband wireless has Navini well-positioned for growth.Proxim: Proxim is a unique wireless pure play in the WLAN and fixed-wireless markets; 2003 will be a critical year for the company.

Sony: Not just a player in the mobile device market, Sony makes or breaks markets with innovative and slick products.

Symbol Technologies: Symbol owns and understands key vertical wireless markets, and its WLAN technology is second to none.

Toshiba: Compaq defined the Pocket PC PDA market, but Toshiba is driving it with innovative products.

Verizon: Of all the cellular players, Verizon has the greatest market share and is the most diversified.Vivato: Vivato's PacketSteering technology may change the physics, not to mention the economics, of Wi-Fi WLANs.• "Cheap and Available" (Network Computing, Nov. 15, 2002)

• "Wireless Nirvana" (Network Computing, Oct. 22, 2002)

• "Intel Hits the Ground Running With Integrated 11a-11b Access Point" (Network Computing, Sept. 2, 2002)

• "Elite Solution Secures WLANs" (Network Computing, June 10, 2002)

• "Wireless LANs Reach the Last Hurdle" (Network Computing, June 10, 2002)• RFP/RFQ Builder

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