Air Time: 3G and Smartphones: Skeptical Optimism

Held in Barcelona, Spain, this week, the 3GSM World Congress is billed by itsproducers as the world's premiere mobile event. Last year, around 34,000 peopleattended the show, taking in the offerings of 685 exhibitors. This year's event hasattracted nearly 1,000 exhibitors and over 50,000 attendees are expected. Has 3Gfinally arrived?

The answer to that question is complex, mostly because the value of 3G dataservices is tied as much to culture as it is to technology. Late last year, wepublished a 3G services cover story analyzing the technology and the business valueand focusing on the use of smartphones and notebook computers equipped with PCCard 3G modems. In that article, I struggled a bit with my own conflicted feelingsabout this market and my predisposition that in IT departments it seldom makesgood business sense to be an early adopter. I was impressed by the progress madein recent years by service providers and equipment manufacturers, a product ofmultibillion-dollar investments. Wide-area wireless service levels have clearlyimproved, which opens the door to innovative mobility applications. However, thebusiness value proposition for most organizations is still tenuous. We have mobilee-mail, a big win for some, but probably not most, users. And beyond e-mail, it'smostly promise rather than reality.

On a personal level, I've been exposed to a broad array of network services anddevices over the past two years. The geek in me finds much of it exciting,reminding me in some respects of the way I felt 25 years ago when PCs hit themarket in volume and the transformational potential of these systems was firstbecoming apparent. Compared to those old PCs, these diminutive handheld devicespack a ton more computing power and lots of bandwidth. It's easy to see all kinds ofpotential for the future, to imagine a time when all information systems areconceived with mobility in mind.

Back in the real world of today, the reception of 3G by seasoned informationprofessionals is lukewarm. I talk to users and IT administrators who struggle on adaily basis with emerging mobile cellular technologies. I've been using a Treo 650 asmy personal smartphone for over a year now, with an unlimited CDMA2000 1X (PCSVision) data plan. It's an impressive digital device in many ways, and a very nicephone. However, if you ask me if I depend on it to get my work done, I wouldn'thesitate to say no, except to the extent that I depend on it for cell phone calls.Occasionally, I find myself benefiting from mobile e-mail capabilities, but more oftenthan not I find smartphone e-mail more frustrating than liberating. It's difficult toread messages, attachments are still a hassle, and the prospect of responding tomessages using the integrated keyboard is largely unworkable despite mypersistent attempts to adapt. To a large degree, mobile e-mail is a lifestyle choice.Although there are occasions when an immediate response to e-mail is important, inmost cases, I can get away with a slower turnaround. I tote my notebook computernearly everywhere I go, and I'm seldom all that far from a Wi-Fi connection (thanksto all of you who freely share!). And people who do need an immediate response canusually reach me on my cell phone.

Beyond mobile e-mail, applications for smartphones haven't really taken off. Yes,there are a number of forward-looking organizations that have developedapplications especially for mobile smartphone users and there is progress amongstdevice and middleware vendors that are trying to make application mobilization areality. But most organizations are still struggling with basic issues involving deviceprocurement and provisioning, device management and user support. Device usersare often as ambivalent as IT professionals. I always make it a point of engagingsmartphone users, even total strangers, in conversations about how they use theirmobile devices. In most cases, the response is the same. It's a nice phone, aneffective means of managing personal contacts and calendars and only occasionallyan important resource for e-mail. Despite vendor claims of thousands ofapplications, it is extremely rare for anyone to mention a specific businessapplication they depend on.Occasionally, I'll run into someone who accesses Web-based services on asmartphone. My son Dan is a sports junkie and uses his Sidekick to check scoresand game summaries, bravely enduring the limitations of GPRS connectivity. I'vefound myself mobile-googling on occasion during a meeting, a practice that hassometimes allowed me to provide a relatively quick answer to a question. Probablymy most indispensable Web application is the local weather radar, which I've usedwhile navigating the streets of Manhattan sans umbrella, on my boat as a stormapproaches and to impress people at a baseball game, where I can second-guess theumpire's decision to call the game because of rain.

Don't get the wrong impression. I am not a total cynic. I believe mobile computingdevices, and smartphones in particular, have a bright future. We look back on thoseold first-generation PCs and chuckle about their limited capabilities. The same willhold true for this generation of mobile device technology. The devices themselveswill rapidly mature, with enhanced interfaces and improved wireless connectivity,and the applications and content will also improve as the critical mass of smartdevices increases -- as it surely will. Entertainment will play an increasing role inmaking this happen, spurred in large part by innovative business models like theESPN Mobile service that is sure to attract sports fans like my son. We'll also seeinherent improvements in the devices themselves as well as the backend serversand applications that allow for the easy delivery of content to these devices. Andvideo distribution technologies, made possible by a range of digital broadcasttechnologies, will ignite broader interest.

Attendees at 3GSM will be getting a feel for the future this week. It won't happenover night, but it will happen.